2021 Green Bay Packers Mock Draft
In approaching the 2021 NFL draft it is important to examine the former performance, existing core, coaching changes, and cap space.
2020 Performance
Last year, the team performed as arguably the league’s best offense — 2,118 rush yards (8th), 4,106 pass yards (9th), and 509 pts (1st). They accomplished this with one of the league’s most balanced offenses 526 passes (24th) and 433 runs (12th). These stats largely supported by the league’s best offensive line — 82 pressures(1st), 2.4s pocket time (T-3rd), and 21 sacks (T-2). The darkest spot for the Packers was their receiving corps, which led the league in TDs (48). The downside of their receiving corps was felt in dropped passes (5.4% — 8th), which were largely on target (81.2% — 2nd).
On defense, the results were mixed. They gave up 5,344 yards (9th) — 3,539 yards passing (7th) and 1,805 rushing yards (13th). Opposing offenses put up 369 pts overall (13th). They gave up 734 yards in penalties (18th) and 19th overall in turnovers (11.4). The Packers were 22nd in blitzing (24.7%) and 24th in hurries (8.1%) — resulting in 27th overall pressure(21.1%). They did, however, wind up tied for 10th in sacks (41). The defense faired the worst against receiving backs — allowing 764 receiving yards out of the backfield (3rd).
Existing Core
The team has lost Corey Linsley C (Chargers), Tim Boyle QB2 (Lions), Jamaal Williams RB3 (Lions), Christian Kirksey ILB1 (Texans), and Montravius Adams NT2 (Patriots). Most notable was the Linsley, who was the top-rated center in the NFL. Injury to starting, star tackle Bakhtiari puts another high profile gap in the offensive line — although he is scheduled to return in the fall. Overall, the picture looks like this:
The gaps in starting lineup are immediate needs but can ultimately be filled with existing personnel. However, given the drop-off in quality from losing Linsley, it will likely be necessary to expend at least one pick on a starter along the offensive front.
It is worth noting that Davante Adams becomes an UFA next year along with Jaire Alexander (5th year option), Kevin King, Robert Tonyan, MVS, Equanimeous St. Brown, Josh Jackson, and Devin Funchess. This indicates that there is tremendous pressure to draft WRs and CBs lest the Packers want to risk losing nearly their entire WR and CB core.
Coaching Changes
Joe Barry (LA Rams) has been named the defensive coordinator for the Green Bay Packers. Barry was part of a defensive staff that helped the team rank 2nd overall in sacks (192.0), 2nd in takeaways (104) and interceptions (63), 7th in overall defense (329.9 ypg) and 9th in scoring defense (21.5 ppg).
In LA, they played Cover-3 the most of any coverage, but played the most Cover-4 in football. They’d mix Cover-1 and Cover-6 to be one of the most diverse defenses in football despite playing zone coverage on more than 80% of snaps. On third downs, they’d bring five-man pressures to try and create one-on-one matchups, rather than overload blitzes or double-A-gap blitzes to scheme up free-runners.
The Packers will still align in a 3–4, which Barry said fits their personnel best. He also made a point that the Packers, like virtually every other NFL team, will spend most of their snaps in subpackage with extra defensive backs on the field.
Overall, this indicates that there will be further pressure to draft secondary weapons early in the draft.
Cap Space
Cap space for the Packers is their Achilles heel. They are near the very bottom with available cap space — with some $2.6M available this year and -$8M in 2022 (after some restructuring). This indicates that they would be less likely to trade up in the draft and might benefit from trading down.
The Draft
In examining their situation, the most immediate needs are at OL, ILB, WR, and DB. Their grades and areas for improvement indicate they could afford to invest some development capital in DI, DE, OL, WR, ILB and DB.
The Green Bay Packers draft picks sit at 29, 62, 92, 135, 142, 173, 178, 214, 220, and 256. With this and their needs in mind, there are a many possible routes:
This table represents potential picks throughout the process. I would note that this is based off of four simulations and that players are necessarily drafted higher-or-lower based on the assumptions of a given simulation. Therefore, ranges are provided adjacent to player names.
After reading through scouting reports, I highlighted the route that maximizes potential overall.
Round 1
The Packers ideal position would be a chance at Zaven Collins. At the same time, I suspect it would be the most difficult decision. The 6-foot-4, 260-pound Collins has explosive speed, athleticism, the ability to cover, and the ability to play in space. Yet, teams often debate over where he fits within their defense. Is he better suited for 4–3 than 3–4? Perhaps, but Collins is a unique piece that can provide versatility to the GB defense. I think, given his abilities and the lackluster LB pool, Collins is the right pick.
Perhaps most mock drafts for the Packers focus on drafting a quality WR. I think this is a fine option. The WR pool also drops off by the Packers second pick. And there are a couple mid-tier LB that could fill the voids. In these situations my first pick would be Elijah Moore.
Many drafts hope for a chance at Newsome — I’ve even seen proposed trades giving up picks for him — I think there are many more options in terms of DB that make prioritizing this CB not ideal. Especially given that it is the poor pass rushing, run defense, and RB screens that have eaten away at the defense — not as much failings in the secondary.
The last option would be to grab a top-tier tackle to oppose Bakh. Teven Jenkins is such a monster. This would allow the offense to maintain their stellar run game and keep those pressures down — allowing even a middling receiver corps to succeed.
Round 2–4
Round 2 will almost always go to Cs and DBs. Quinn Meinerez offers the professional build that NFL teams covet. But with the new defensive coach, needs of the secondary, and the availability of quality players — I suspect a DB pick could come here. It might be Elijah Molden, who is versatile enough to play anywhere in the secondary (albeit having limited experience as a safety).
Round 3 might leave a window for the Packers to draft a quality center in Creed Humphrey. Humphrey has been starting at center for three seasons for the Sooners and didn’t allow a single sack in his career. He has the size and athleticism to play any position on the interior. Although, I suspect all the quality starters will be gone. This then leads me to consider OT Brady Christensen, who broke PFF’s record for highest grade as a tackle and who only allowed 3 pressures all year.
Round 4 could go to LB Monty Rice (assuming Jamin gets taken much, much earlier). Monty has excellent run, rush, and coverage grades. He was able to keep pace with premium receiver Jaylen Waddle. Osa Odighizuwa (DI) would be another excellent pick — filling an end role on the defensive front. Odighizuwa is desirable for his combination of anchor and length. He’s earned run-defense grades of 83.2, 80.6, and 78.4 the past three seasons.
Rounds 5–7
Round 5 leaves a window open for some excellent development players in CB and WR. It would be hard to pass up on a versatile cornerback like Tay Gowan, who has played man press and cover-3 effectively. He could start in many of the schemes that Joe Barry wants to execute. And Jaelon Darden would certainly be a sleeper. He’s a short speedster, which could complement the existing corps nicely. He is known for breaking tackles and man-to-man coverage. And last year he hauled in 19 touchdowns on 74 catches for 1,190 yards.
The 6th round also presents with some exciting opportunities. Zech McPhearson would be a nice tool to add for depth in the secondary. He has lots of experience in both the slot and outside corner positions. His build enables him to line up really anywhere. Raymond Johnson III fills the role of the DE that the Packers employ in their 3–4. He’s explosive, athletic, and his grades across the board rival top tier DE’s, which have improved with each year. His knock is playing in lower level of competition. But for a 220-pick, he’s a steal.
Round 7 is not as exciting. Many prospects, including the ones I’ve listed, simply go undrafted. I haven’t been able to make a determination for best player available here. I think a tank wideout like Marlon Williams could provide an additional target in the red-zone — or Warren Jackson for that matter (a 6'6" WR with excellent ball skills). Jack Andersen probably offers the most developmental upside. I’ve even taken running backs, such as Rhamondre Stevenson, to complement the existing corps in the absence of Jamaal Williams. Or Felipe Franks as a QB3, who would hopefully unlock Aaron Rodgers true potential.
The end resulting drafts look something like this:
On Trades
There aren’t many trading options that offer potential in this draft. Trading up could encroach on cap limits. Trading down offers more potential and is considerably more appealing if more picks can be gained in the 2nd and early 3rd rounds. Consider a few examples:
There’s usually a marked precipitous fall during the first round in terms of value. So trading back from the late-1st to the mid-2nd with change does make a lot of sense in many scenarios. Most of the value picks I’ve considered tend to exist in the 40–60 range this year.
Overall, I look forward to seeing what the Packers can do with the 2021 draft, which may be the last dance they have before needing to rebuild due to cap space.
